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Infectious diseases
yearly number of notified cases to single figures in most Western countries, in
the USA a total of 1,288 cases were reported during 1971-1981, compared to,
only 40 cases in 1980-1993. In England and Wales, there were 800,000 notifications
of diphtheria during 1920-1934 with 50,000 deaths. The number of cases decreased
from over 40,000 in 1940 to 37 in 1957, and during the period of 1970-1994 only
124 cases were identified. In some countries, including Finland and Sweden,
decades passed without any cases after the implementation of diphtheria
vaccinations in the 1950s. Reduction in the number of diphtheria cases has also
taken place m the developing world, but the cutaneous forms of the C. diphtheriae
infection especially still remain endemic in several tropical countries.
The factors leading to the start of diphtheria epidemics are poorly understood.
The last major epidemic in Europe, before the current one, occurred in the 1940s.
In 1943 the annual incidences per 100,000 population were as high as 212 in
Germany, 760 in Norway and 622 in the Netherlands. It has been estimated that
in 1943 there were 1 million cases and 50,000 deaths due to diphtheria in
Europe. Limited epidemics have thereafter been reported both in developing
(including China, Tajikistan, Ecuador, Jordan, Lesotho, Sudan, Yemen and Algeria)
and industrialized (USA, Sweden, Germany) countries. These epidemics have all
been local and relatively small; numbers of cases have varied from a few to a few
hundred. The carriage rate of C. diphtheria even, in the proximity of the patients,
has been low, and no significant spread of the infection has occurred in the
general population. Since 1990, a massive epidemic has prevailed in Eastern
Europe, mostly in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and their neighboring countries.
A smaller epidemic occurred previously in 1983-1985, when the annual number
of cases in the Soviet Union exceeded 1,400 – being less than 200 in preceding
years. After a few-years of low incidence, rates per 100,000 population started
to increase from 0.5 in 1990 to 10.2 in 1993, 26.9 in 1994 and 24.2 in 1995.
Especially in large cities, the rates were high (St. Petersburg, 52.5/100,000 and
Moscow, 47.1/100,000). In some areas the incidence rate even exceeded 100/
100,000. Over 63,000 cases were reported from Russia in 1990-1994. Thereafter,
the epidemic started to decline and, in 1996, the incidence was only 9.2/100,000.
Another country suffering badly from the epidemic is Ukraine. The annual
number of diphtheria cases remained below 100 until the end of 1980s, but increased
rapidly thereafter. The incidence rates increased from 0.1/100,000 in-1989 to 5.7
both in 1993 and in 1994. The total number of cases in Ukraine between 1990 and
1994 was estimated at nearly 9,000. Reflections of the epidemic can also be seen in
other countries close to Russia and Ukraine, although the numbers are smaller. In
1994, Belarus reported 230 cases (incidence 2.5/100,000), Estonia 7 (0.4), Latvia
250 (9.6), Lithuania 31 (0.3), and Moldova 372 cases (8.6/100,000). Case fatality
rates in this epidemic ranged from 3 % to 21 % in different countries.
Features that might be important in understanding the dynamics of the
epidemic and its prevention have been studied. The most important is the high